Gm. Quick editor's note to start today off.

On Friday, we wrote that Instacart cut its valuation by raising a down round in March. That was incorrect.

Though Instacart did cut its valuation in March, it did so voluntarily through a 409a price change, which is determined by third party companies. It did not raise a down round.

Thanks to Homescreen reader Sahil for catching the mistake.

FRESH POWDER

Looking at three funds that recently topped up their coffers.

BIG PICTURE

A bull, a bear, and a neutral observer walk into a bar...

Over the weekend, we read all the black swan VC manifestos, skimmed countless bullish Twitter threads, and even texted our cousin Greg to see what thoughts he had on the current market. So today, we’re stepping back to survey the big picture.

Here is a bearish, neutral, and bullish viewpoint of the current state of venture and startups.

Bearish

This section, unfortunately, is the easiest to write. With the Nasdaq down 30% from its all time high, VCs have started to close their wallets as LPs get more strict with their money.

On the startup front, companies are getting told to hunker down. At the beginning of the year, having 18 months of runway was considered totally acceptable. Now, the consensus is two to three years. It’s a sharp departure from the grow at all cost mindset of the previous decade.

Quote that sums it up: “Your goal should be to get to Default Alive,” from Y Combinator's message to founders.

Neutral

The neutral crowd generally acknowledges that funding is going to slow, but argues it’s far from 2008 where things really seized up. They think that the worst thing a founder can do right now is enter survival mode and stockpile cash. Neo CEO Ali Partovi wrote a Twitter thread advising other founders to resist slowing down and preserving cash when it’s not necessary.

Quote that sums it up: “Don't kill your startup with self-inflicted wounds. You can't save your way to becoming a unicorn,” from Ali Partovi.

Bullish

The optimistic crowd is marching to a familiar beat: technology always has, and always will, win in the end. Plus, hiring and recruiting has become a little easier as the gigantic pay packages offered by big tech in recent years have become a little less attractive. This, along with the hiring freezes at many public companies, represents an opportunity for smaller startups to poach quality hires.

Quote that sums it up: “Progress in technology carries forward steadfastly throughout all market cycles,” published by Lightspeed Venture Partners.

Bottom line: Whether you are bullish, neutral, or bearish…you’re probably right.

TRADING

FTX wants your stock

FTX started with crypto, moved into naming sports arenas, and now it’s coming for your brokerage account. The crypto exchange is officially expanding to include traditional stock trading alongside its crypto offerings.

• The announcement comes on the heels of FTX snagging a 7.6% stake in Robinhood two weeks ago to become its third largest shareholder.

One key difference between the two brokerages

FTX plans to route orders directly through the Nasdaq exchange rather than using the payment for order flow (PFOF) model that competitors employ.

• PFOF lets brokerages like Robinhood direct orders to market makers in exchange for compensation. It’s been hugely unpopular with consumers ever since it came to light during the Game Stop bonanza of 2020 which is why FTX is likely steering clear.

Zoom out: Customer acquisition for brokerages like FTX is expensive and competitive af, so once it snags a customer, the goal is to extract as much value from them as possible. One way to do that is to continually expand its product offering to meet more of its consumers' needs. Now that users can manage their crypto, NFT, and stock trading on one platform, they have little reason to ever leave FTX’s clutches.

QUICK HITS

Seed Round

Stat: Mozilla’s Firefox browser was hacked in just eight seconds using two critical security flaws. Manfred Paul pulled off the speedy exploit at a security conference in Vancouver this past Friday. His fast fingers netted him a total of $100,000 in bounty money from the event organizers. The four hour work week is out, eight second work week is in.

Story we're watching: Stripe and Plaid are gearing up for a fintech battle of the ages. Both companies have been launching competing features, writing passive aggressive Tweets, and generally stepping on each others toes for the past few months. Alex Wilhelm and Mary Azevedo at TechCrunch have a nice break down (for TechCrunch+ subscribers only).

Rabbit hole: “Hello world” in every computer language (GitHub).

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON

• Apple is reportedly going with a standalone AR/VR headset design over a more powerful tethered version.

• Oracle founder Larry Ellison was on a call in November 2020 regarding ways to overturn the US Presidential election, according to a recent lawsuit.

• Boeing’s Starliner rocket completed its first successful mission, successfully docking at the ISS.

MONDAY MUSING

All the comparisons to 2008 have us wondering...what’s different this time around?

In your mind, what’s the single biggest difference between the startup landscape now verses in 2008?

Let us know here.

FOUNDERS CORNER

The best resources we came across this weekend that will help you become a better founder, builder, or investor.

🔁 An essay on surviving crypto cycles by Paradigm and Coinbase cofounder Fred Ehrsam

🚜 Sam Bankman-Fried’s fantastic explanation of yield farming

🐻 A Launch House Sprint on building in a bear market together with a16z and Sequoia

MONDAY MUSING RESULTS FROM PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week we asked, "Do you think Elon will eventually end up owning Twitter? Or will he back out?"

Exactly 50% of you believe he will complete the purchase, while 50% said he's going to back out.

Can't wait for the inevitable Twitter poll where he just lets his followers decide.