Gm. Boring is the new "sexy".

YEAR IN REVIEW

2022's Biggest Winners

Last week, the All-In Podcast besties broke down their biggest winners, losers, surprises, and more from 2022. For biggest winners, we've got:

David Sacks said Lockheed Martin and the defense sector were his biggest winner. Lockheed is up 37% YTD. Even some of the lower performers like Raytheon are up 15%. With the war in Ukraine still not over, Sacks thinks 2023 will be another big defense year.

David Friedberg said in the short-term, defense and the oil and gas sector were big winners. In the long-term, Friedberg said the biggest winners long-term were OpenAI and diffusion startups.

Chamath Palihapitiya said that any person who understands the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was the biggest winner in 2022. It's a formula that describes the relationship between systemic risk and expected return for stocks.

Jason Calcanis said ChatGPT and OpenAI's partner Microsoft. Calcanis played "Is it Google or ChatGPT?" and couldn't tell the difference between Google and ChatGPT answers. Calcanis is predicting that Microsoft will be releasing a search engine to compete with Google (that is incentivized to provide accurate answers rather than get users to click on ads).

Epic episode. Even an Elon appearance. Thanks for the entertainment on my boring car ride through the Amish country this weekend.

— Jason Levin (@iamjasonlevin)

TECH

IBM Takes The Crown

It's been a bloody year for tech stocks:

• Nasdaq down 10%

• Tesla down 72%

• Meta down 65%

• Apple down 29%

• Microsoft down 29%

However, there is one blue-chip tech stock that is in the green for the year. It's not a "sexy" company, but it's a sturdy one that's been around for a loooong time and by the looks of it will be around for quite a while longer.

I'm talking about none other than IBM.

Safety > Growth

The secret to IBM's success is embedded in its DNA: IBM does what it does extremely well, and doesn't try to do anything else.

IBM never meteorically flies up like a Tesla. What IBM does is post consistent single-digit gains, and it does by sticking to its established playbook for making money: Cloud infrastructure, consulting, computing, and small acquisitions.

The result is $752 million in free cash flow generated in Q4, up 25% from a year earlier, $1.5 billion in dividends paid out, and a stock that is up 5% on the year.

Where is IBM heading?

IBM leads the world in quantum computing.

If you're like me and not a physics nerd, quantum computing just means they use quantum mechanics to solve problems normal computers can't solve.

I have no clue how this stuff works, but I do understand business.

IBM has 20+ of the most powerful quantum computing systems in the world, and their community of clients and partners includes 210+ Fortune 500 companies.

Goldman Sachs. Sony. Samsung. Boeing. You name it, they're using IBM quantum computing. IBM is quietly playing 4D quantum chess.

— Stephen Flanders (@SteveFlanders22) 

QUICK HITS

Seed Round

Stat: 79%: The percentage of laid-off tech workers who find a new job within three months of starting their search. Pretty good, but still a bit below the 83% share of all laid-workers over the same timeframe.

Story we're watching: Electric vehicles (EVs) could be in for a banner 2023, as sales could fly once the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credit rules take hold in March. Keep an eye on Tesla, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Rivian, and Volkswagen.

Rabbit hole: Messari 2023 Crypto Theses (Ryan Selkis)

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON

• Brancher.ai recently won an AI hackathon, and it’s super cool. I really suggest you check it out.

• California law SB No. 1398 is banning Tesla from advertising itself as “full self driving”.

• Elon Jet is back, but this time with a 24-hour delay.

• The Bitcoin hashrate (computing power) dropped 40% over Christmas weekend due to a harsh winter storm.

THREE LIES AND A HEADLINE

News is so weird these days. Three of these headline are fake stories from The Onion while one is actually true. Can you spot the truth amongst the fakes?

A. Drake Gifts DJ Khaled 4 Luxury Toilets for Christmas

B. Zombie Virus Revived After 48,500 Years in Permafrost

C. Why Human-Animal Hybrid Brains Hold Promise for Neurological Disease

D. James Cameron 'Proves' Jack Couldn't Have Survived Titanic Sinking

FOUNDERS CORNER

The best resources we came across that will help you become a better founder, builder, or investor.

🧠 Ok get ready for a big brain idea. A designer named Ben Pieratt is selling pre-made brands with domains and digital assets.

📺 I'm currently taking Jack Butcher's Compound Content SEO course right now. Worth the $99, learning a lot of useful tools and tactics.

✉️ EmailTriager, an AI tool for drafting emails, was chilling near the top of Hacker News.

STARTUP FUNDING

Looking at three startups that recently raised funding. Congrats!!!

THREE HEADLINES ANSWER

C